Toe In The Water

 There are two common sense questions you should ask before authoring a formal business plan.

  1. What are the market prospects for my idea?
  2. What are the financial prospects for my idea?

 Market Prospects

Market prospects are determined by quick surveys:

  1. Who would my customers be?
  2. Are there enough of them?
  3. What would I sell for?
  4. How many can I sell per year?
  5. What is my market penetration

 The number of customers is determined by how many entities (people and/or businesses) you think have a need or might like to buy what you are selling.  Aggregate your customer profiles into similar groups.  For example, let’s say the answer to your first question is: people between ages 18-34.  US Census information shown to the left indicates that the identified group is 4% of the total population (of 310,592,467 at the end of 2010) which is 12.4 million people.  The answer to question 2 is, “it depends” on the net income of each sale which leads us to defer until we can answer questions 3 and 4.  If my product or idea can be sold one or more times to a person in the target group, then I multiply my margin by the number of sales based on some assumed market penetration.  This leads us to ask, what are the financial prospects?

Financial Prospects

How much funding and time is required to bring the startup to profitability?  This includes such items as:

  1. Any development required to bring product or service to market
  2. Any infrastructure like buildings, rentals, IT architecture, etc
  3. Acquiring and compensating personnel, professional services

 Don’t limit development to product development alone.  You will need a place to do your work along with at least basic infrastructure (office space, electricity, heating and cooling, communications, office equipment, etc).  You might need equipment to build, prototype and test your product or service.  It is likely that you will be collaborating with others (employees or contractors) to ready your product or service.  You’ll be developing or hiring a marketing and/or sales capability to create and promote the necessary planning and collateral to launch your initiative.  It is also likely that you will need the advice and services of an accountant, a lawyer and one or more business advisors.  Not the least important is your own income during the development period.  This may or may not include health insurance or other benefits.

Once you’ve itemized all of these factors, estimate how long you will need to operate before launch and revenue begins to flow.  Factor in all costs up until the time your cash flow goes positive and then add 20%.  That will be the “startup cost” of your venture.

Know What You Need

Knowing the startup cost and how long it will take to pay it back is essential to seeking funding.  If your prospective market is enthusiastic about your venture and the startup investment is reasonable compared to a quick and dirty ROI, then pursuing a formal business plan makes sense.

Remember, the business plan is primarily for you.  Investors are interested in how much traction your idea has and your 10-20 slide PowerPoint.  The business plan will permit you to hit the ground running once investor funding is made available.

More on “traction” next month…

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Why Bother?

Why Bother?

Should you even have a business plan? And, if so, why and who should write it?   

In previous posts Thinking In Advance, Visioning and A Written Plan: Key To Collaboration described essential activities that a business planner must practice. Now we come to some basic questions. Should one even write a plan? And if so, who should actually write the plan?   

    

No Plan
   

I’ve read some blogs that scoff at writing business plans, since “no one reads them anyway.” These proponents are not all wrong. Read David Cowan’s blog post, Who Has Time For This? How To NOT Write A Business Plan posted on November 17, 2005. David is a venture capitalist and his approach is direct, refreshing and cuts right to the chase. If you’re looking for VC backing, you’ll only bury them with a lengthy and lumbering business plan. David would prefer a 10-12 slide PowerPoint deck that he describes in his post.   

Plan   

David’s advice, notwithstanding, the VC is only one potential player for an emerging business. Writing the business plan is more of a process for the visionary than an end in itself. The 10-12 slides PowerPoint deck is absolutely essential as a highlight presentation but you’ll still require a somewhat detailed plan if only to execute the steps required to evolve from vision to reality. Said another way, if your 12 slide presentation raised all the funds you needed for startup, then what?   

Business plans go way beyond “vision” and challenge the feasibility of concept and implementation. They uncover some ugly stuff like product or service liabilities and unintended consequences, all of which you’ll want to deal with to lower the risk of your offering. The plan forces you to say exactly what value you will offer and what it will take you to produce (experts, administrative staff, facility, purchases, etc.) all leading up to some “Startup Cost.” It will force you to think through being successful, how you will grow, how you will need to evolve your ideas and methods to suit different buyers.   

The “VC” might challenge the vision and some assumptions based on a slide deck, but his due diligence team will look a lot closer. So do we write a plan for the VC or for ourselves. The answer of course is the latter. After all, most small businesses and startup firms don’t have access to or even think of using venture capital. Most small enterprises pony up the startup funding from their savings or loans from family and friends. All the more reason to plan carefully.   

The Best Author
And who should write the business plan. Ideally, the future owner should write the plan.   

Helping Hands
If you’ve never written a business plan or writing is not your strong suit, there is plenty of help waiting for you. There are plenty of outlines, free plan samples and software tools available on the internet. Google “Sample Business Plans”.  Additionally, there are services available that will interview you and charge a fee for preparing a written plan. These plans range in cost from a few hundred dollars to several thousand dollars. Some even do market research for you.   

The author may still require assistance depending on how much business experience he/she has or how fast he/she wants to write the plan. Samples you may find are good as far as check lists are concerned indicating what should and should not be included. Typically plan lengths should not exceed 30 pages. That said, research, financial analysis and supporting documents can and should be included as appendices and these can add considerable length to the overall document.   

Don’t Write It and Put It On The Shelf
No matter what decisions you make, don’t avoid writing and owning your business plan. It will help you make day to day decisions. It will help you know if and when you’re “coming off the rails”. It will even help you activate exit strategies or know it’s time for a re-write.   

What are your thoughts?

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A Written Plan: Key to Collaboration

If you have the best and most unique idea about a new or existing business, you would be well advised to share that idea with colleagues that are your trusted advisors.  A friend of mine used to say, “Getting the right people on the bus is the most important thing you can do because then the bus can go anywhere.”

Get On the Bus

Your good and unique ideas will take you on a journey from the initial business conception to its business realization.  And much like “the people on the bus”, you and your trusted advisors need certain strengths and capabilities to arrive at an achievable and profitable place.

So who should be on this bus?

  1. A subject matter expert – to assure the feasibility of your business idea and its dependencies.
  2. A Financial Professional – to do some quick tests even before you write your business plan.  A quick, go, no go, can save a lot of wasted time.
  3. A Marketing Professional – to test and enhance your value proposition, to measure and segment target markets and to help with pricing and communications.
  4. A Legal Professional – depending on how you choose to go to market and raise necessary capital, you will need legal services.
  5. A Banker – to guide you through your funding options and their consequences.
  6. A Risk Management Professional – to assess inherent and consequential risks and design in a risk management plan to eliminate or mitigate potential risks.
  7. Experienced Business Advisor – that can act as the “team captain” for all the professionals named above and your business confidant.

If you don’t know or can’t afford all of the professionals listed above, an experienced business advisor should be able to create the material for brief reviews by those professionals.

Share Your Ideas

Writing your business plan forces you to carefully consider your ideas and their consequences so you can step back and begin to develop the necessary objectivity required to go to market.  Writing your plan allows you to share your ideas with trusted colleagues and associates to get their feedback and direction.

The written plan, then, enables collaboration.  It strengthens your ability to tell your story in ever shorter amounts of time.  Graphs, pictures, charts can be extracted and used to articulate specific points.  The written plan offers transparency for others to understand and challenge your assumptions making your plan ever stronger.  Challenge and response gets the plan ready for skeptical investors or loan officers.  So the more collaboration you do, the better your preparation for funding challenges.

Got Legs?

Lastly, don’t be dismayed if the “bus ride” ends somewhere you hadn’t envisioned including back where you started!  The written plan will either “have legs” or not.  In the unhappy event that your plan does not “have legs” you will be disappointed but not broke.  If your plan is worthy of proceeding you will have everything you need to garner the financial and managerial support required to succeed.

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Visioning

VisioningVisioning

“Your old men will dream dreams and your young men will see visions” (ACTS 2:17)

The mere mention of a lottery mega jackpot, gets me “calculating”.  I immediately subtract the tax I’d have to pay and then figure the lump sum payment I’d opt for and then the monthly yield of tax free income from a safe tax free bond fund.  Then I’m overtaken by bouts of “visioning”.  All those possibilities!  Visioning is motivated by possible future realities.  If you are an entrepreneur, you’ll spend a good amount of time, visioning.

Innovation

Frequently, the off spring of visioning is “innovation”.  That is, the invention of new things or the unique combination of old things to form a new or unplanned result.  Many innovations turn out to be astonishingly obvious, after, we see them, leading us to exclaim, “Why didn’t I think of that?”  The market highly values innovation.  I think of Steve Jobs, co-founder of Apple.

Visioning and innovation are the fuel that drives entrepreneurial ventures.  The entrepreneur reasons, that no one or just a few people have thought of his/her vision.  Or if they have, they have not quite fully exploited the vision like he/she is prepared to do.  Visioning is about seeing the finished product or results before taking any action to realize them.  Sadly, many so called visions turn out to be mirages created by the heat of over optimism.

Those Pesky Questions

The visionary needs to be surrounded by ugly and skeptical realists before he/she beats a path to that future reality they see so clearly.  Market research, with a small “r” can quickly detect a “mirage” from a vision worth pursuing.  The market as a great leveler asks questions like:

  • Who could use my idea?
  • Why would it be valued?
  • What is the size of the potential market?
  • Who are my competitors?
  • Are there existing products or services that address the need my idea satisfies?
  • If so, is the target market underserved?
  • Where is the potential market for my idea?
  • How could I become known to them or be found by them?
  • What will it cost to get my message to the market?
  • Can I identify any current or future market events that will reduce or eliminate the “need” for my idea?
  • How will the idea be realized?
  • What will it cost to test?
  • What will the “production costs” be?
  • Will I need “startup funds”?
  • If so, where will they come from?
  • Who will be managing the day to day “Realization Roadmap?”
  • How will my idea be delivered or distributed?
  • Will I need alliance partners?
  • If so, can identify whom?
  • Will my market be segmented?
  • If so, how?
  • Assuming initial success, how would I grow my market(s)?
  • What would be the growth’s corresponding costs and revenues?

Need I continue?

Shortcut

So be careful.  Visioning can be the dream of a lifetime or an expensive chase to nowhere.  This should not stop entrepreneurs from “visioning”.  Luckily, there is a shortcut to determe the marketability of good ideas.  Instead of the top down market study, strategic plan and accounting Performa, there is a method called “seed and breed”.  It is written about in a book I read years ago, called, It’s Alive by Christopher Meyers and Stand Davis, published in 2003.  The authors stress that we are racing towards a “bottom up world” where the top down, hierarchical approach is not agile or rarely productive.  This approach is like putting all your money on one  number at the roulette table.  To replace the lumbering life cycle of:

  • Vision an idea
  • Conceive a business model
  • Do a market study
  • Calculate ROI
  • Make the business case to (would be investors) non-subject matter experts
  • Acquire an initial round of funding
  • Build out the concept to a working prototype
  • Record and measure the results
  • Make a “go, no go” decision to proceed to final realization
  • Secure the balance of funding
  • …and so forth

With the following:

  • Vision the idea
  • Create 10 or more variations (scenarios or incarnations) of the idea
  • Conduct small scientific and marketing experiments with all the variations
  • Select the one or two variations prove they can “win” in the market.
  • Demonstrate the winning scenario(s)
  • Raise funding and build to completion

This latter approach is called seeding and breeding.  It emulated the biological survival of the fittest.  The benefits are:

  1. It’s faster
  2. It’s cheaper
  3. It exposes the vision to multiple possibilities (that would not have otherwise been tried)

Dream On

So, dream on you entrepreneurs, but go well armed to the marketplace to test and realize your dream or move on to the next one.

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Thinking In Advance

child taking notes

Your Best Asset

A good friend of mine once told me that the best asset one has is “thinking in advance”.  In business, this is especially true.  When you think of it, carefully preparing before an important meetng or presentation, practicing and revising your content, often makes the difference between success and failure.

Planning is a form of ”thinking in advance.”  Often business planning is done in a constrained manner due to the shortage of time or budget limitations.  Expediency all too often poisons what would have been a worthy plan.  When planning sessions feel like you’re picking the least worst, it’s not planning at all.

Thinking Big

Thinking in advance without false constraints is the best form of planning.   A good plan needs room to think big.  If the plan delivers real value, finding the time and budget will likely be there.  Take, for example the planning that often occurs when parents and children consider attending “the right” college.  Most parents will support their son or daughter who applies to the better schools, and if accepted, worry about how they will pay.  Why?  Because attending a good college or university is higly valued.  This motivates the parents to scrimp, save and barrow to make the educational plan work.

The Process

Another benefit of thinking in advance is the planning process itself.  Forget for a moment the end result of the plan and think of the self knowledge and experience the planner gains by simply going through the planning process.  Alternatives are considered, risk is removed, required resources and their sources are thought through.  The likelihood of successful plan execution improves with each iteration of the planning thought process.

The Art

The art then, is finding the balance between enough thinking in advance versus “just getting started”.

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